Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Last captured price
93.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 93.5%
$1.2M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the calculation formula for fully diluted valuation and define the exact evaluation time as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. However, no specific price feed or index is named; the resolver must determine which venue constitutes the most liquid price source available at that moment. If token prices fluctuate near the $200M threshold across different decentralized or centralized exchanges, this lack of an explicit reference feed introduces ambiguity. Additionally, the market carries a multi-year window ending December 31, 2027, resolving to No if no token launches by then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Predict.fun's governance token achieves a Fully Diluted Valuation above $200M one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (total token supply multiplied by token price) of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than $200M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the valuation does not exceed $200M at that time, or if Predict.fun does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — Deadline for token launch before resolving to No
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
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