Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?
Last captured price
97.95¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 97.95%
$726.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the calculation method (total token supply multiplied by token price) and the exact snapshot time (4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the launch). However, the resolution source is generically defined as 'the most liquid price source available' rather than specifying a particular price aggregator or exchange. If the token trades across multiple decentralized or centralized venues with price discrepancies or fragmented liquidity, the decider must exercise judgment in identifying the primary price source at the snapshot timestamp.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market predicts whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Predict.fun's governance token will exceed $50 million one day after its public launch. The market has a specific definition for "launch" and a deadline for the token's release.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Predict.fun's governance token has a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) greater than $50 million one day after its launch. The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered launched. The FDV is calculated by multiplying the total token supply by its price. "One day after launch" is specifically defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the launch. The market resolves No if the FDV is not greater than $50 million one day after launch. The market also resolves No if Predict.fun does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — If Predict.fun does not launch a token by this date, the market resolves No.
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
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