Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Current price
1.5¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.5%
$24.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria rely directly on official Federal Reserve meeting statements with clear mathematical definitions for rate cuts, hikes, and pauses using the upper bound of the target rate. Emergency rate adjustments between meetings are explicitly ignored. Participants should note the specific clause stating that any rate cut will automatically be categorized under the Other outcome rather than an explicit combination, which can surprise someone reading only the title.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market tracks the combination of Federal Reserve interest rate decisions across three specific FOMC meetings (September, October, and December) based on the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
How it resolves
The market resolves based on the decisions made at the September, October, and December FOMC meetings. A cut occurs if the new upper bound is lower than before the meeting, a hike occurs if it is higher, and a pause occurs if it is equal. The market resolves to Other if the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed outcome, or if any rate cut occurs. Emergency rate changes outside scheduled meetings are not considered. The FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve website decide the outcome.
Key dates
- First FOMC meeting: September 15-16
- Second FOMC meeting: October 27-28
- Third FOMC meeting: December 8-9
Resolution source
Federal Open Market Committee statement and Federal Reserve official website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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