19¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 19%
$92.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
This market has clear and objective resolution mechanics. The outcome is determined by official Federal Open Market Committee statements published directly on the Federal Reserve website following the three specified scheduled meetings. A hike, pause, or cut is explicitly measured by changes in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate relative to its level immediately prior to each meeting. Rate changes made during unscheduled or emergency meetings are explicitly excluded from consideration, leaving virtually no room for decider discretion or ambiguity.
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
The price rose from 8% to 19%, but available news reports and market data provide no clear catalyst for the move.
AI-generated · 17 Oct 2026, 04:53 UTC
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rules history is not displayed yet.
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee executes a specific sequence of rate decisions—Hike, Pause, Pause—across its September, October, and December meetings based on the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
The market resolves to Yes if the FOMC hikes the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at the September meeting, followed by a pause at the October meeting, and a pause at the December meeting. It resolves to No if a different listed combination occurs. It resolves to Other if the Fed executes any combination not listed, including any sequence that contains a rate cut. Emergency rate changes outside regularly scheduled meetings are not considered. Resolution is decided using the FOMC post-meeting statements and the Federal Reserve website.
FOMC statements and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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