Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Current price
67.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 67.5%
$86.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market defines rate changes with high precision by referencing the upper bound of the target federal funds rate before and after each specified Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The resolution depends directly on official statements from the Federal Reserve website, leaving no subjective judgment. The rules also clearly outline how inter-meeting emergency actions are handled by excluding them from consideration.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee executes a specific sequence of interest rate moves—Hike, Pause, Hike—across its September, October, and December meetings. It tracks the upper bound of the target federal funds rate and ignores emergency rate changes outside regular meetings.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the FOMC raises the upper bound of the target federal funds rate in September, leaves it equal in October, and raises it in December. The market resolves to No if this exact sequence does not occur. The market resolves to Other if the Fed executes any combination not listed in the market options, including any combination containing a rate cut. Emergency rate changes outside regularly scheduled meetings are not considered. Resolution is decided using the FOMC post-meeting statements published on the official Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- September FOMC meeting: September 15-16
- October FOMC meeting: October 27-28
- December FOMC meeting: December 8-9
Resolution source
FOMC statement after its meetings published on the Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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