Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
4 live outcomes · highest priced: Hike–Pause–Hike at 68% (−1 pts in 24h) · first close Dec 9, 2026 · $352K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the combination of target federal funds rate decisions made across three consecutive Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings spanning September through December, measuring whether rates are hiked, paused, or cut at each meeting.
How the outcomes relate
The event presents mutually exclusive outcome combinations for the sequence of three FOMC decisions, along with a catch-all option. At most one market can resolve Yes. If the resulting sequence is not listed among the explicit options, or if any rate cut occurs, the catch-all option resolves Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate compared to the prior level across three FOMC meetings (September 15-16, October 27-28, and December 8-9). A higher upper bound is a hike, an equal upper bound is a pause, and a lower upper bound is a cut. A market for a specific three-meeting combination resolves Yes if that exact sequence occurs. Any rate cut or unlisted sequence resolves the catch-all option to Yes. Emergency rate changes outside regularly scheduled meetings are excluded.
Key dates
- September FOMC meeting: September 15-16
- October FOMC meeting: October 27-28
- December FOMC meeting: December 8-9
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike–Pause–Hike | 68% | ▼ 1 | Low | Med | |
| Hike–Pause–Pause | 19% | ▼ 1 | Low | Med | |
| Hike–Hike–Hike | 11% | ▲ 2 | Low | Med | |
| Other | 2% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Hike–Hike–Pause | 3% | ±0 | Low | Med |