Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Current price
3.3¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.3%
$54K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the exact mechanism for resolving the market, defining a hike, pause, and cut based on the upper bound of the Federal Open Market Committee's target federal funds rate. Resolution relies strictly on official FOMC meeting statements across the specified meeting dates, with direct links to the Federal Reserve website. Emergency inter-meeting rate changes are explicitly excluded, and any combination other than the listed outcomes resolves unambiguously to an Other option.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee will increase the upper bound of the target federal funds rate in September, increase it again in October, and maintain it in December.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the FOMC raises the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at the September 15-16 meeting, raises it again at the October 27-28 meeting, and leaves it unchanged at the December 8-9 meeting. The market resolves to Other if the Fed produces any different combination of decisions across these meetings, including any rate cut. Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings are not considered. Resolution is decided using FOMC post-meeting statements and the official Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- September FOMC Meeting: Meeting held September 15-16.
- October FOMC Meeting: Meeting held October 27-28.
- December FOMC Meeting: Meeting held December 8-9.
Resolution source
FOMC post-meeting statement and the official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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