Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Current price
11¢
+2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 11%
$94.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide precise, objective definitions for rate hikes, cuts, and pauses based on the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. Resolution relies directly on official Federal Reserve meeting statements across specified FOMC dates, with clear handling of emergency inter-meeting moves and fallback outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market tracks whether the Federal Open Market Committee will raise the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at all three designated meetings in September, October, and December. It specifically excludes emergency rate changes outside regular meetings.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the FOMC raises the upper bound of the target federal funds rate compared to its prior level at each of the three scheduled meetings (September 15-16, October 27-28, and December 8-9). The market resolves to No or Other if any other combination of decisions occurs. Any rate cut is encompassed by Other. Emergency rate changes outside scheduled meetings are not considered. Resolution is decided using the FOMC post-meeting statements and the Federal Reserve's official rate publications.
Key dates
- September FOMC Meeting: — September 15-16 meeting
- October FOMC Meeting: — October 27-28 meeting
- December FOMC Meeting: — December 8-9 meeting
Resolution source
FOMC statement and official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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