Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
Current price
1.15¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.15%
$62.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate following the January 2027 FOMC meeting compared to the rate immediately prior. The resolution source is the official statement and website of the Federal Reserve, leaving virtually no room for subjective interpretation. Clear provisions are included for non-standard rate adjustments, which round up to the nearest 25 basis points, and a straightforward fallback resolves the market to no change if no statement is released before the subsequent meeting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee increases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range by 50 basis points or more following its January 2027 meeting.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate increases by 50 or more basis points compared to its level prior to the January 2027 meeting. Rate changes not matching displayed options round up to the nearest 25 basis points. The market resolves to No if the upper bound increases by less than 50 basis points, remains unchanged, or decreases. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled FOMC meeting, the market resolves to the No change outcome. The Federal Open Market Committee statement and the official Federal Reserve website decide the outcome.
Key dates
- FOMC meeting start date: — Scheduled start of the two-day January 2027 meeting
- FOMC meeting end date: — Scheduled conclusion of the January 2027 meeting and potential statement release
Resolution source
Federal Open Market Committee statement and the Federal Reserve official website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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