Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
Current price
34.5¢
+4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 34.5%
$179.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the metric as the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range following the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Resolution relies on direct official publications from the Federal Reserve website. Participants should note the specific rounding rule, which dictates that any unconventional rate change not explicitly listed will round up to the nearest 25 basis points (for example, a 12.5 basis point hike would count as 25 basis points). Additionally, if no statement is released before the conclusion of the subsequent FOMC meeting, the market defaults to resolving as no change.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee increases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range by 25 basis points following its January 2027 meeting. An unusual feature is that rate changes not matching displayed option brackets are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased by 25 basis points compared to its level prior to the meeting. Any non-standard change is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points (for instance, a 12.5 bps increase counts as 25 bps). The market resolves to No if the rate change is not a 25 basis point increase. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the No change bracket. The outcome is determined by the FOMC statement released after the meeting, with data also published on the official Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- FOMC Meeting: — Scheduled dates for the FOMC meeting are January 26–27, 2027.
Resolution source
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and the Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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