Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
Current price
1.55¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.55%
$88.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that interest rates refer to the upper bound of the Federal Open Market Committee's target federal funds range. Resolution relies on the official FOMC post-meeting statement published on the Federal Reserve website, leaving no decider discretion. Clear mechanics are provided for non-standard rate adjustments, which round up to the nearest 25 basis points, and a straightforward fallback rule resolves the market to no change if no statement is issued before the next meeting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points following the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Rate changes not explicitly listed are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the FOMC decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points compared to the level prior to the January 2027 meeting. Any rate adjustment not matching a displayed option rounds up to the nearest 25 basis points, meaning a 12.5 bps reduction counts as 25 bps. The market resolves to No if the rate is changed by any other amount or left unchanged. If no FOMC statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to No change. The deciding source is the FOMC statement released after the January 26-27, 2027 meeting or the official Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- FOMC meeting: — Start of the scheduled FOMC meeting
- FOMC meeting conclusion: — End of the scheduled FOMC meeting and expected statement release
Resolution source
FOMC statement and the official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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