Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
Current price
0.55¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.55%
$94.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that the interest rate refers to the upper bound of the target federal funds range and define how any rate change is measured relative to the level before the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The resolution source is the official Federal Reserve FOMC statement published directly on the central bank's website. Explicit provisions are included for non-standard rate adjustments by defining a standard rounding rule, and an objective fallback to a no-change outcome applies if no statement is released before the subsequent meeting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range by 50 basis points or more following the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Rate adjustments that do not match standard brackets are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the FOMC statement reduces the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range by 50 basis points or more relative to its level before the January 2027 meeting, accounting for non-standard changes being rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. The market resolves No if the upper bound decreases by less than 50 basis points, remains unchanged, or increases. If no statement is released by the end date of the subsequent scheduled FOMC meeting, the market resolves to the No change bracket. Resolution is determined by the FOMC meeting statement or the Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- FOMC January 2027 meeting: — Scheduled start date of the two-day FOMC meeting concluding on January 27, 2027.
Resolution source
Federal Open Market Committee statement and the official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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