Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?
Current price
64.5¢
+2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 64.5%
$133.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the exact metric used for resolution: the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range following the January 2027 FOMC meeting compared to the prior level. Official statements published on the Federal Reserve website serve as the definitive resolution source, eliminating decider discretion. Clear rounding rules are defined for non-standard rate changes, and a straightforward fallback resolves the market to no change if no statement is released by the conclusion of the following scheduled meeting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee leaves the upper bound of the target federal funds rate unchanged following its January 2027 meeting.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is unchanged compared to its level prior to the January 2027 meeting, or if no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting. The market resolves No if the target federal funds rate is changed by any amount. If a rate change is not expressed in the displayed options, it is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points to determine the bracket. The outcome is determined by the FOMC statement issued after the meeting or data published on the Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- FOMC meeting start date: — Start of the scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting
- FOMC meeting end date: — End of the scheduled meeting and expected statement release
Resolution source
Federal Open Market Committee statement and the Federal Reserve official website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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