Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Current price
2.7¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.7%
$553.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly define the measured variable as the upper bound of the target federal funds range compared to its level immediately prior to the December 2026 FOMC meeting. The resolution source is explicitly identified as the official FOMC statement and Federal Reserve website. Clear mathematical guidance is provided for non-standard rate adjustments by specifying that changes will round up to the nearest 25 basis points, and a straightforward fallback rule resolves the market to no change if no statement is published before the next scheduled meeting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve will raise the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range by 50 basis points or more following its December 2026 FOMC meeting. Rate adjustments not explicitly listed in standard options are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range increases by 50 basis points or more compared to its level prior to the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Any rate change amount not matching standard increments is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. The market resolves to No if the upper bound increases by less than 50 basis points, does not change, or decreases. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled FOMC meeting, the market resolves to the No change bracket. Resolution is determined by the FOMC statement issued after the meeting or published rate data on the official Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- FOMC Meeting Start: — First day of the scheduled December 2026 FOMC meeting.
- FOMC Meeting End: — Second day of the scheduled December 2026 FOMC meeting.
Resolution source
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.