Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Current price
76.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 76.5%
$900.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that the outcome is determined by changes to the upper bound of the target federal funds range announced in the official FOMC statement for the December 2026 meeting. Official Federal Reserve links are designated as the direct resolution sources, leaving no room for decider interpretation. The criteria include explicit rounding rules for non-standard rate changes (rounding up to the nearest 25 basis points) and a fallback provision resolving to no change if no statement is published before the subsequent meeting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve increases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points following the FOMC meeting in December 2026. Notably, rate adjustments not matching listed options round up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate increases by 25 basis points compared to its level prior to the December 2026 meeting. If the rate change does not match a listed option, it rounds up to the nearest 25 basis points, meaning a 12.5 basis point increase counts as 25 basis points. The market resolves to No if the rate change is any other amount. If no statement is released by the end date of the subsequent scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the No change bracket. Resolution is determined by the FOMC statement issued after the meeting or the Federal Reserve official website.
Key dates
- FOMC meeting start: — Scheduled start date of the December 2026 FOMC meeting.
- FOMC meeting end: — Scheduled conclusion date of the December 2026 FOMC meeting.
Resolution source
FOMC statement and the Federal Reserve official website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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