Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
Current price
19.5¢
−2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 19.5%
$872.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that the outcome tracks changes in the upper bound of the target federal funds range decided at the FOMC meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Official Federal Reserve statements and publications serve as the explicit resolution sources, with clear rounding logic for non-standard rate adjustments and a definitive fallback to resolve as no change if no statement is released before the subsequent meeting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee maintains the upper bound of the target federal funds rate with no change following its December 2026 meeting.
How it resolves
The market resolves based on the change in basis points to the upper bound of the target federal funds rate versus its level prior to the December 2026 meeting. It resolves Yes if the FOMC statement reflects no change (0 basis points) in the upper bound of the target range. It resolves No if the upper bound is raised or cut. Any rate change to a level not expressed in the options is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the No change outcome. The deciding source is the FOMC statement following its December 8-9, 2026 meeting or the official Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- FOMC meeting: Scheduled dates for the FOMC December 2026 meeting.
Resolution source
FOMC statement or the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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