Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Current price
0.65¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.65%
$918.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market defines the relevant metric clearly as the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range following the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Resolution relies on direct, official Federal Reserve statements with specified URLs. Non-standard rate adjustments have an explicit rounding rule to the nearest 25 basis points, and there is a clear fallback resolution rule if no statement is issued by the subsequent meeting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee reduces the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range by 25 basis points following its December 2026 meeting. A key rule is that rate changes not matching standard options round up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate compared to its level prior to the December 2026 meeting. The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound decreases by 25 basis points, with non-standard cuts rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. The market resolves to No if the rate decreases by a different amount, remains unchanged, or increases. If no FOMC statement with relevant data is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the No change bracket. The FOMC statement and official Federal Reserve website decide the outcome.
Key dates
- FOMC December 2026 Meeting: — Scheduled end date of the FOMC meeting where the interest rate decision is issued.
Resolution source
Federal Open Market Committee statement and Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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