Fed Decision in December?
5 live outcomes · highest priced: 25 bps increase at 78% (+2 pts in 24h) · first close Dec 9, 2026 · $3.9M total volume
About this event
This event tracks the Federal Open Market Committee's interest rate decision following its December 2026 meeting. Markets measure the specific change in basis points to the upper bound of the target federal funds rate compared to the level immediately prior to the meeting.
How the outcomes relate
The event is structured as a set of mutually exclusive brackets covering potential basis point increases, decreases, or no change. Because each market corresponds to a specific rate change bracket, at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate changes by the specified amount following the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Rate changes not explicitly listed are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points (for instance, a 12.5 bps change rounds to 25 bps). Resolution is determined by the FOMC statement released after the meeting. If no statement is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the event resolves to the 'No change' bracket.
Key dates
- FOMC meeting: — Scheduled FOMC meeting dates are December 8-9, 2026.
Resolution source
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement / Federal Reserve official website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 78% | ▲ 2 | Low | High | |
| No change | 20% | ▼ 2 | Low | High | |
| 50+ bps increase | 3% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| 25 bps decrease | 1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | ±0 | Low | High |