Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Current price
0.35¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.35%
$699.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly defines the measurement metric as the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range compared to its level immediately prior to the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Resolution relies directly on official Federal Reserve sources, specifically the post-meeting statement published on the Federal Reserve website. Clear rules address non-standard adjustments by rounding up to the nearest 25 basis points, and a specific fallback resolves the market to no change if no statement is released before the subsequent meeting concludes. There is minimal ambiguity or decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range by 50 basis points or more following its December 2026 meeting. Any rate adjustment not matching standard brackets is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the FOMC lowers the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 50 or more basis points compared to its pre-meeting level following the December 2026 meeting. Any unlisted rate change is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. The market resolves to No if the rate is decreased by less than 50 basis points, left unchanged, or increased. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled FOMC meeting, the market resolves to the No change bracket. Resolution is determined by the FOMC statement and official data published on the Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- FOMC meeting end date: — Scheduled conclusion of the December 8-9, 2026 FOMC meeting.
Resolution source
Federal Open Market Committee statement and Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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