Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
Current price
0.25¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$67.1K total volume · YES/NO
High gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market title asks if 5 or more rate hikes will occur, but the body text contains conflicting rules copied from an exact-count market structure. The rules state the market resolves according to the exact amount of hikes and will resolve early to No if more hikes occur than the strike in question, which directly contradicts the 5 or more condition where higher totals should resolve to Yes. Additionally, non-standard rounding rules treat any hike between 1 and 24 basis points as a full 25-basis-point hike, and 50-basis-point moves count as two distinct hikes. While the Federal Reserve is named as the clear official source, the conflicting resolution logic creates significant risk of unexpected resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- High
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve implements 5 or more 25-basis-point equivalent rate hikes during 2026. Rate hikes are counted in 25 bps units, with fractional hikes between 1–24 bps counting as one hike, and emergency hikes outside regular meetings are included.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve implements a total of 5 or more rate hikes in 2026. Each 25 bps increase counts as one hike (e.g., 50 bps counts as 2 hikes), and any increase between 1–24 bps inclusive counts as 1 hike. Emergency hikes outside scheduled FOMC meetings count toward the total. The market resolves to No if fewer than 5 hikes occur by the end of 2026. The market will resolve early to No if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible. Resolution is determined by FOMC statements and target federal funds rate data published on the official Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- Market close: — Market remains open until 11:59 PM ET to account for potential emergency actions.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.