How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
5 live outcomes · highest priced: 2 (50 bps) at 68% (−1 pts in 24h) · first close Dec 31, 2026 · $966.3K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the total number of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes that take place during the year 2026. Individual markets correspond to specific numbers or ranges of 25-basis-point rate increases.
How the outcomes relate
Markets represent mutually exclusive count thresholds or brackets for the total number of rate hikes in 2026. Because each market corresponds to an exact count or a specific terminal range, at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if the final tally of 25 bps rate hikes in 2026 matches the specified strike, and No otherwise. Rate increases are measured in increments of 25 bps (with a 50 bps hike counting as 2 hikes, and hikes between 1-24 bps counting as 1 hike). Emergency hikes outside scheduled FOMC meetings are included. A market resolves early to No if the number of actual hikes exceeds its strike. Resolution is determined by FOMC statements and official Federal Reserve publications.
Key dates
- Market close: — Remains open until 11:59 PM ET to account for potential emergency rate actions through year-end.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 (50 bps) | 68% | ▼ 1 | Low | Med | |
| 1 (25 bps) | 23% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| 3 (75 bps) | 10% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| 4 (100 bps) | 1% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| 5+ (125+ bps) | <1% | ±0 | High | Med |