Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
Current price
9.95¢
−0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 9.95%
$163.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how rate hikes are counted, explicitly breaking larger moves down into increments of 25 basis points (for instance, a 50 bps increase counts as two hikes) and treating any move between 1 and 24 bps as one hike. Emergency rate adjustments are explicitly included alongside scheduled FOMC meetings, and the market stays open through the end of 2026 to capture any unexpected year-end action. Resolution relies directly on official Federal Reserve statements and published target rate changes. The market permits early resolution to No if the cumulative hike count exceeds three before year-end, ensuring predictable mechanics throughout the coverage period.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve will implement exactly three 25 basis point rate hikes in 2026. Rate changes are converted into 25 bps equivalents, including emergency actions and unusual hike sizes between 1–24 bps.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve implements exactly three 25 basis point rate hikes in 2026, including scheduled and emergency hikes. Rate hikes are calculated in 25 bps increments, meaning a 50 bps hike counts as two hikes, and any hike between 1–24 bps inclusive counts as one hike. The market resolves to No if the final count is not exactly three. The market will resolve early to No if more than three hikes occur before the end of the year. The outcome is determined by FOMC statements and target federal funds rate data published on the official Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- Market close: — The market remains open until 11:59 PM ET to account for emergency actions.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and Federal Reserve official target federal funds rate publications
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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