Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
Current price
0.75¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.75%
$72.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how interest rate hikes will be counted, defining increments such that a 50 basis point increase equals two hikes and any increase between 1 and 24 basis points counts as one hike. Both scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings and unscheduled emergency actions are included through the end of December 31, 2026. The market features an early resolution condition to resolve immediately to negative if more than four hikes have already taken place. Resolution relies on official statements and target rate publications directly from the Federal Reserve website.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve will execute exactly 4 rate hikes (measured in 25 basis point increments) in 2026. A notable aspect is that rate increments are standardized: 1–24 bps counts as 1 hike, and a 50 bps hike counts as 2 hikes.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve executes exactly 4 rate hikes in 2026. Each 25 basis point hike counts as 1 hike, any hike between 1–24 bps counts as 1 hike, and larger hikes are split into 25 bps increments (such as 50 bps counting as 2 hikes). Emergency hikes outside scheduled meetings and hikes at the December meeting are included. The market resolves to No if the Fed executes any total number of hikes other than exactly 4, resolving early to No if more than 4 hikes occur before year-end. Resolution is determined by FOMC statements and official Federal Reserve publications.
Key dates
- Market close: — Market remains open until this time to account for emergency rate actions.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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