Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
Current price
20.5¢
−2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 20.5%
$476.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines how rate hikes are calculated, specifically counting increments of 25 basis points and treating any hike between 1 and 24 basis points as one hike. The resolution relies directly on official Federal Reserve statements and data published at designated URLs. Holders should note the early resolution provision: if more than one rate hike occurs at any point during 2026, the market will resolve to No immediately rather than waiting until the end of the year.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve implements exactly one 25-basis-point rate hike in 2026. What makes it unusual is that hikes are counted in 25 bps increments—including fractional hikes of 1–24 bps counting as one hike—and the market resolves early to No if total hikes exceed one.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve executes exactly 1 rate hike of 25 basis points in 2026, including scheduled meetings and emergency hikes, with any hike of 1–24 basis points also counting as 1 hike. The market resolves to No if the total number of 25 bps hike equivalents in 2026 is not exactly 1. The market resolves early to No if more than 1 hike occurs during 2026, making the outcome impossible. Resolution is determined by FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve target federal funds rate data.
Key dates
- Market close: — Market remains open until this time to account for any emergency actions.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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