Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
Current price
67.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 67.5%
$185.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how rate hikes are calculated, standardizing them into 25-basis-point increments and outlining how fractional changes between 1 and 24 basis points are treated. Official Federal Reserve statements and websites serve as the definitive resolution sources, leaving no room for decider discretion. The market accounts for both scheduled FOMC meetings and unscheduled emergency actions through December 31, 2026, with a clear early resolution clause resolving to 'No' immediately if the cumulative count exceeds two hikes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the US Federal Reserve will implement exactly two rate hikes in 2026, counting each 25 basis point increase as one hike, with specific rules for partial hikes and emergency actions.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Federal Reserve implements exactly two rate hikes in 2026. Each 25 basis point (bps) increase counts as one hike. For example, a 50 bps hike counts as two hikes. Hikes between 1 and 24 bps (inclusive) also count as one rate hike. Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings count towards the total. The market resolves No if the Federal Reserve implements any number of rate hikes other than two in 2026. It also resolves No if more than two hikes have already occurred, making exactly two hikes impossible. The market remains open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any emergency actions. The resolution source is FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026, according to the official calendar, and the level and change of the target federal funds rate published on the official website of the Federal Reserve.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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