Will Máximo Kirchner win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Current price
0.3¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.3%
$18.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify that resolution tracks the winner of the 2027 Argentine presidential election, explicitly covering potential runoff rounds. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with explicit fallback to official election authorities (Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral) if ambiguity arises. A definitive deadline is established with an explicit resolution to Other if results remain unresolved a year after the scheduled election.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Máximo Kirchner will win the 2027 Argentine presidential election, including any potential second round.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Máximo Kirchner wins the 2027 Argentine presidential election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome includes any potential second round. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from Argentina government sources—including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral—if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date of the election
- Definitive result cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if results are not known by 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with Argentina government sources (including Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral) as the official deciding source if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.