Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Current price
48.5¢
+2.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 48.5%
$257.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on whether Javier Milei wins the next presidential election in Argentina, explicitly including any runoff or second-round vote. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official election authorities (the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral) if any ambiguity arises. A long resolution deadline extending a full year past the scheduled October 2027 election date ensures sufficient time for certification, recounts, or potential delays before a timeout to Other is triggered.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Javier Milei wins the 2027 Argentinian presidential election, including any second round. The market has a specific deadline for resolution before it defaults to 'Other'.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Javier Milei wins the 2027 Argentinian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins the 2027 Argentinian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves Other if the election results are not definitively known by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, official results from Argentinian government sources, such as the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral, will be used.
Key dates
- Scheduled Election Date:
- Resolution Deadline: — If results are not definitively known by this date, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Resolution source
Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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