Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Current price
29.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 29.5%
$136.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution tracks the winner of the next Argentine presidential election scheduled for 2027, explicitly covering potential second-round runoff scenarios. Initial determination relies on consensus reporting across credible outlets, but the rules provide a clear, objective fallback to named official Argentine electoral bodies (the Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral) if any ambiguity or dispute occurs. A generous long-stop deadline extending to October 31, 2028 provides ample time for certification and legal processes, resolving to an alternate outcome only if no winner is definitively established by that point.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Axel Kicillof will win the next Argentinian presidential election scheduled for 2027. It includes any potential second-round runoff and features a fallback resolution if results remain unknown one year after the scheduled election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Axel Kicillof wins the next Argentinian presidential election, including through a potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided based on a consensus of credible reporting, or solely on official results from Argentina government sources—including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral—if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Date the election is scheduled to be held.
- Definitive results deadline: — Market resolves to Other if definitive results are not known by this time.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or official results reported by Argentina government sources including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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