Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Current price
10.65¢
−4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 10.65%
$80K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly specify that the market hinges on whether the named candidate wins the next Argentine presidential election, explicitly incorporating a potential runoff. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting, but provides concrete fallback authority by naming official government election bodies (the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral) in the event of ambiguity. A long buffer deadline through late 2028 prevents premature expiry if vote counting or certification faces delays.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Sergio Massa wins the 2027 Argentinian presidential election, including any second round. The resolution is unusual because it specifies a fallback to 'Other' if results are not definitively known by a particular date.
How it resolves
This market resolves Yes if Sergio Massa wins the 2027 Argentinian presidential election. This includes winning in any potential second round of voting. This market resolves No if any other candidate wins the 2027 Argentinian presidential election. This market resolves Other if the election results are not definitively known by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, official results from Argentinian government sources, such as the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral, will be used.
Key dates
- Scheduled Election Date:
- Resolution Deadline: — If results are not definitively known by this date, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting; official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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