Will Juan Grabois win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Current price
0.2¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.2%
$43.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The outcome is clearly defined as the candidate winning the next Argentine presidential election, with explicit inclusion of any potential second-round runoff. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, backed by specified official government electoral bodies if reporting is ambiguous. A long timeout window extending to October 31, 2028 provides ample time for certification and potential legal disputes, with a clear fallback resolution to Other if no definitive outcome is reached by that deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Juan Grabois wins the 2027 Argentinian presidential election, including any second round. The market has a specific deadline for resolution before it defaults to 'Other'.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Juan Grabois wins the 2027 Argentinian presidential election. This includes winning any potential second round of the election. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins the 2027 Argentinian presidential election. The market resolves Other if the election results are not definitively known by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based on official results reported by Argentinian government sources, specifically the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral.
Key dates
- Scheduled Election Date:
- Resolution Deadline: — If results are not known definitively by this date, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting; official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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