Will Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Last captured price
0.15¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$13.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes a victory in the 2027 Argentine presidential election, explicitly covering potential runoff rounds. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official electoral authorities like the Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral serving as definitive fallback sources if any ambiguity arises. A generous longstop date of October 31, 2028, provides ample buffer for any certification delays, resolving to Other only if results remain unknown by that time.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro will win the next Argentinian presidential election, scheduled for 2027. It includes any potential second-round runoff.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro wins the next Argentinian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to "Other" if the results are not definitively known by October 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official Argentinian government sources such as the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — The scheduled date for the Argentinian presidential election.
- Definitive result deadline: October 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET falls after the stated market end date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official Argentine government sources (including Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral) as fallback for ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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