Will Guillermo Moreno win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Current price
0.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.5%
$26.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on whether Guillermo Moreno wins the next Argentine presidential election, explicitly including any runoff round. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official government election bodies—specifically the Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral—serving as named tie-breaking authorities if reporting is ambiguous. A long fallback window allows until October 31, 2028, resolving to 'Other' if definitive results are still unknown by then, minimizing timing traps.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Guillermo Moreno wins the next presidential election in Argentina, scheduled for 2027. It accounts for potential runoff rounds and features a fallback resolution if results remain unknown by a specified deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Guillermo Moreno wins the next Argentinian presidential election, including through a potential second round. It resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. It resolves to Other if the election results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from Argentine government sources such as the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election date: — Date the presidential election is scheduled to be held in Argentina.
- Definitive result deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from Argentine government sources including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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