Will Nicolás del Caño win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$140.4 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes winning the next Argentine presidential election, including any potential runoff or second round. The resolution relies primarily on credible consensus reporting, backed by official government election bodies (Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral) in the event of ambiguity. A long backstop deadline through October 31, 2028, provides sufficient time for official results and certification to finalize without triggering an accidental timeout.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Nicolás del Caño will win the next Argentinian presidential election scheduled for 2027, including any potential second round.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Nicolás del Caño wins the next Argentinian presidential election, including via a potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results are not definitively known by October 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely based on official results from Argentinian government sources such as the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Scheduled date for the Argentinian presidential election.
- Definitive results deadline: — Deadline after which the market resolves to Other if results are unknown.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official Argentina government sources including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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