Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Current price
1.15¢
−0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.15%
$20.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly identify the event and candidate, explicitly covering potential runoff rounds. Resolution primary relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with explicit recourse to official government election authorities if needed. A long fallback deadline provides ample buffer for any certification delays, though it specifies resolving to an Other outcome if results remain unknown.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Cristina Fernández de Kirchner will win the 2027 Argentine presidential election, including any potential second round.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Cristina Fernández de Kirchner wins the next Argentinian presidential election, including a potential runoff. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if definitive results are not known by October 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguities resolved via official Argentina government sources such as the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Scheduled date for the Argentina presidential election
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if definitive results are unknown by 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from Argentina government sources including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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