Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Current price
1.85¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.85%
$26.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The resolution rules clearly outline that the market hinges on whether the named candidate wins the next presidential election, explicitly covering potential runoff rounds. Resolution primary relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, but explicitly names the official Argentinian electoral authorities, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral, as definitive fallbacks if any ambiguity arises. A one-year timeout provision exists to resolve the market if election results are not definitively known by late October 2028.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Patricia Bullrich will win the next Argentine presidential election in 2027, covering potential runoff rounds.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Patricia Bullrich wins the next Argentine presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if election results are not definitively known by October 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official Argentine government sources (such as the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral) if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — The presidential election is scheduled to be held in Argentina.
- Definitive result deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not known definitively by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official Argentine government sources (Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral) as fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.