Will Dante Gebel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Current price
0.95¢
−0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.95%
$51.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly on whether the specified candidate wins the next Argentine presidential election, explicitly incorporating any second-round runoff. Primary resolution relies on consensus reporting across credible outlets, with clear fallback authority given directly to official government bodies, specifically the Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral. There is also a generous one-year deadline buffer after the scheduled election date to account for any certification delays, after which the market resolves to Other.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dante Gebel will win the next Argentinian presidential election scheduled for October 24, 2027, including any potential second round.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Dante Gebel wins the next Argentinian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if definitive results are not known by October 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from Argentine government sources—such as the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral—if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — The date the presidential election is scheduled to be held in Argentina.
- Definitive result deadline: — The deadline by which results must be definitively known, otherwise the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or official Argentina government sources including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral if there is ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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