Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Current price
0.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$52.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly identify the winning condition, expressly account for potential runoff rounds, and establish a long resolution buffer through late October 2028 in case of delays. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, but the rules provide clear fallback criteria referencing official Argentinian electoral bodies such as the Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral if reporting is ambiguous.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mauricio Macri wins the 2027 Argentinian presidential election, including any second round. The market has a specific deadline for resolution before it defaults to 'Other'.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Mauricio Macri wins the 2027 Argentinian presidential election. This includes winning any potential second round of the election. The market resolves No if a candidate other than Mauricio Macri wins the 2027 Argentinian presidential election. This includes winning any potential second round. The market resolves Other if the election results are not definitively known by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, official results from Argentinian government sources, specifically the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral, will be used.
Key dates
- Election Date:
- Resolution Deadline: — If results are not definitively known by this date, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Resolution source
Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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