Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Current price
0.45¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.45%
$41.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The resolution rules clearly define the winning condition, encompassing both a first round and any necessary runoff election. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible media reporting, backed by named official Argentine electoral bodies (Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral) if any ambiguity arises. A generous one-year buffer through October 31, 2028, ensures ample time for official certification before a default resolution clause is triggered.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Victoria Villarruel wins the 2027 Argentinian presidential election, including any second round. The market has a specific deadline for resolution before defaulting to 'Other'.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Victoria Villarruel wins the 2027 Argentinian presidential election, including any second round. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins the 2027 Argentinian presidential election, including any second round. The market resolves Other if the election results are not definitively known by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, official results from Argentinian government sources, such as the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral, will be used.
Key dates
- Scheduled Election Date:
- Resolution Deadline: — If results are not definitively known by this date, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting, or official results from Argentina government sources including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.