Will Myriam Bregman win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Current price
1.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.5%
$61.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the official winner of Argentina's 2027 presidential election, including any potential runoff. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with explicit fallback to official government electoral authorities (Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral) in the event of ambiguity. The market includes a generous long-stop deadline of October 31, 2028, providing ample time for election certification or legal challenges to conclude.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Myriam Bregman wins the 2027 Argentinian presidential election, including any second round. The market has a specific deadline for resolution before it defaults to 'Other'.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Myriam Bregman wins the next Argentinian Presidential election, including any second round. The market resolves No if a candidate other than Myriam Bregman wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. The market resolves Other if the election results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, official results from Argentinian government sources, such as the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral, will be used.
Key dates
- Election Date:
- Resolution Deadline: — If results are not known definitively by this date, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting; official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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