Will Facundo Manes win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$32.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly identify the event and candidate, explicitly covering potential second-round runoffs. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, but is backed by specific, named official government electoral bodies if any ambiguity arises. The market includes a generous timeout buffer extending to October 31, 2028, resolving to Other if definitive results are somehow unavailable, which protects against prolonged certification disputes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Facundo Manes will win the next Argentinian presidential election, scheduled for October 24, 2027, including any potential runoff.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Facundo Manes wins the next Argentinian presidential election, including via a potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if definitive results are not known by October 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official Argentina government sources (such as the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral) if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Argentina presidential election scheduled date
- Definitive result cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if results are not known by 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official Argentina government sources (including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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