Will Juan Schiaretti win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Current price
0.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$43.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly identifies the outcome as whether Juan Schiaretti wins the next Argentine presidential election, explicitly including any second-round runoff. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, but provides a concrete, non-discretionary fallback to official government electoral authorities—specifically the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral—if any ambiguity arises. A generous longstop deadline extending into late 2028 gives ample time for certification and legal challenges, minimizing timing disputes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Juan Schiaretti will win the 2027 Argentine presidential election, including any potential second round.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Juan Schiaretti wins the next Argentinian presidential election, including through a potential second round. The market resolves to No if another listed candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided based on the election results indicated by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely based on official results from Argentina government sources like the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date:
- Result determination deadline: — Resolves to Other if results are not known definitively by this time.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from Argentina government sources (including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral) as the deciding source if ambiguity arises
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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