Will Hunter Biden be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Last captured price
0.75¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.75%
$4.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define the outcome based on the first individual who is formally nominated for Vice President by the Democratic Party in 2028 and accepts the nomination. Resolution relies directly on official Democratic Party sources, specifically referencing the party's official website. Additionally, the rules explicitly clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee after the initial formal acceptance will not alter how the market resolves.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Hunter Biden will be the Democratic Party's official Vice-Presidential nominee for the 2028 US Presidential election. The market resolves based on the first individual formally nominated who accepts the nomination.
How it resolves
This market resolves Yes if Hunter Biden is the first individual formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. This market resolves No if any other individual is the first to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including democrats.org.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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