Will Josh Shapiro be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Current price
4.65¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.65%
$5.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has clear and straightforward resolution terms based on the official nomination process. It resolves to the first person who is formally nominated for Vice President by the Democratic Party and accepts the nomination during the 2028 cycle, referencing official party sources like the party website. Participants should note that if the initial nominee is replaced before election day, the market still resolves to the original first accepted nominee.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Josh Shapiro will become the Democratic nominee for Vice President of the United States for the 2028 presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Josh Shapiro is the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if another person is the first to be formally nominated and accept the nomination. Any replacement of the nominee prior to election day does not change the resolution. The outcome is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including the official Democratic Party website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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