Will Gavin Newsom be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Current price
1.95¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.95%
$2.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market has straightforward rules anchored to official Democratic Party announcements and platforms. It resolves based on the first individual who is formally nominated for Vice President and accepts the nomination during the 2028 cycle. The rules clearly state that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not affect or reverse the initial resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gavin Newsom will become the Democratic nominee for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 election cycle. Notably, the market locks on the first formally nominated person who accepts, ignoring any later replacement prior to election day.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Gavin Newsom is the first person formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The market resolves to No if any other individual is the first person formally nominated who accepts the nomination. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the resolution. The outcome is decided by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.