Will LeBron James be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Current price
1.25¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.25%
$734.4 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market clearly defines the winning condition as the first person to formally receive and accept the Democratic Party's vice-presidential nomination for the 2028 election cycle. Official party channels, including the official party website, serve as the basis for resolution, leaving minimal room for subjective interpretation. An explicit clause clarifies that any replacement of the nominee after the initial formal acceptance will not alter how the market resolves, preventing confusion if a post-nomination substitution occurs.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether LeBron James becomes the Democratic Party's nominee for Vice President of the United States for the 2028 presidential election cycle.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if LeBron James is the first individual formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if another individual is the first to be formally nominated and accepts the nomination. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not alter the market resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.