Will Barack Obama be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Current price
1.25¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.25%
$2.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on the first individual who is formally nominated for Vice President by the Democratic Party in the 2028 cycle and accepts that nomination. Resolution relies on official Democratic Party sources, including the official party website. There is an explicit clarification that subsequent replacements after the initial formal nomination will not affect the outcome, ensuring straightforward resolution conditions.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Barack Obama will become the Democratic vice-presidential nominee for the 2028 election cycle. Resolution is tied specifically to the first individual who receives and accepts the formal nomination, ignoring any subsequent nominee replacements before election day.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Barack Obama is the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves to No if any other person is the first to be formally nominated and accept. Any replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not change the resolution. The outcome is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including the official Democratic Party website.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including the official Democratic Party website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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