Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Current price
4.55¢
−2.65¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.55%
$13.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes resolution: the first person to be formally nominated for Vice President by the Democratic Party in the 2028 cycle who accepts the nomination. Resolution relies on official Democratic Party sources, specifically referencing the party's official website. Additionally, the rules explicitly clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the initial resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Zohran Mamdani becomes the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee. Resolution is locked to the first person who accepts the formal nomination, meaning any replacement before election day is disregarded.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Zohran Mamdani is the first individual formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The market resolves to No if another individual is the first person to receive and accept the formal nomination. Any replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not affect or change the resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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