Will Mark Kelly be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Current price
4.05¢
+0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.05%
$3.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly establish that resolution depends on the first person to be formally nominated for Vice President by the Democratic Party for the 2028 election who accepts the nomination. The designated resolution source points to official Democratic Party channels, primarily their official website. There is also a clear provision specifying that subsequent replacements after the initial formal nomination will not alter the outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mark Kelly will become the Democratic nominee for Vice President of the United States for the 2028 election cycle. Resolution is tied specifically to the first person who is formally nominated and accepts, regardless of any later replacements before election day.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Mark Kelly is the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if someone else is the first person to receive and accept the formal nomination. Subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not alter the market resolution. The outcome is decided using a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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