Will Michelle Obama be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Current price
0.8¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.8%
$1.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. Resolution relies on official Democratic Party sources, specifically referencing the party's official website. An explicit clause clarifies that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not alter the result, ensuring the outcome locks upon the initial accepted nomination.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Michelle Obama will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election. Resolution is tied strictly to the first person who accepts the formal nomination, disregarding any subsequent replacements before election day.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Michelle Obama is the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if another individual is the first to be formally nominated and accepts the nomination. Any replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not change the market resolution. The outcome is decided by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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