Will Tim Walz be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Current price
0.7¢
−0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.7%
$1.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define the winning condition as the first individual formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President in the 2028 election cycle who accepts the nomination. The outcome is tied to official party documentation, specifically including democrats.org, leaving minimal room for subjective interpretation. A specific clause clarifies that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the initial resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tim Walz will be the Democratic Party's Vice-Presidential nominee for the 2028 US Presidential election. Resolution is tied to the first person formally nominated who accepts, and any subsequent replacement prior to election day is disregarded.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Tim Walz is the first individual formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President in the 2028 Presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if another individual is the first person formally nominated who accepts the nomination. Any replacement of the nominee prior to election day does not alter the resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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